Evaluation of Danish funding for climate change mitigation in developing countries

Effectiveness concerns achieving intended results, and mitigation results are those that reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Of special interest are strategic changes to systems whose characteristics determine emissions over time. Taken together, these describe 'strategic mitigation efectiveness', the assessment of which is the main aim of this evaluation. It focuses on Danish eforts in developing countries in the period 2013-2019 and was commissioned by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark (MFA). The evaluation uses a theory of change based approach to seek causal mechanisms, and to explore how they work under what conditions. It seeks to identify patterns and trends among many projects and programmes, and its treatment of detail is therefore different from that of a project-level evaluation. Its findings rest on evidence from studies of 4-8 projects and programmes in each of four MFA-selected focal countries, namely Ethiopia, Indonesia, South Africa and Vietnam. Because of the COViD pandemic, the evaluation was largely desk based, but findings were validated and enhanced by national consultants working in the focal countries, and through remote interviews. Data were supplemented by soliciting mitigation case reports from 35 Danish embassies