Building on Brahimi - Peacekeeping in an era of Strategic Uncertainty

United Nations (UN) peace operations face an extended and dangerous period of strategic uncertainty. Since the end of the Cold War, global peacekeeping has undergone cycles of expansion and contraction. After a round of boom and bust in the 1990s, UN operations expanded through the last decade, as did those of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the African Union (AU), the European Union (EU) and other organizations. But a series of set-backs have coincided with military overstretch and the financial crisis, raising the risk that UN peacekeeping may contract once more.

In projecting high demand for peacekeeping, this report identifies six factors that are likely to complicate operations in the next 3-7 years:
• A particular need for the UN and other organizations to undertake operation, sometimes in large- scale theaters with limited infrastructure, requiring robust “expeditionary” capabilities;
• Likely opposition from hardened and sophisticated ‘spoilers’, often with international backers (state and non-state) in both internal and inter-state contexts;
• Further pressure on peacekeepers to play a primary or supporting role in extending the authority of weak or contested governments;
• Complex and divisive politics not only within conflict settings but also at the regional and international levels about conflicts and the interests and values involved in resolving them;
• Major financial and political obstacles to increasing supply among existing troop contributors to the UN, requiring reinforcements from diverse sources;
• The fact that NATO’s operations in Afghanistan will, likely for the next 3-5 years, sharply constrain the capacity of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) contributors to mount or lead Multi- National Force (MNF) operations, limiting the alternatives to robust UN peacekeeping.