Scenario Building: How to build scenarios in preparation for or during humanitarian crises

Scenario building, an analysis of how situations might evolve, is an essential part of humanitarian operations as it informs contingency planning and preparedness measures ahead of possible developments. It can also help to ensure programming is sufficiently robust to withstand changes in the operational environment.

This brief provides a step by step approach on how to build scenarios. The methodology can be applied to a range of settings and timeframes, from a protracted conflict to a sudden onset disaster.