Political aftershocks: the impact of earthquakes on intrastate conflict

 Although many scholars, policy makers, and relief organizations suggest that natural disasters bring groups together and dampen conflicts, earthquakes can actually stimulate intrastate conflict by producing scarcities in basic resources, particularly in developing countries where the competition for scarce resources is most intense. Capitalizing on a natural experiment design, this study examines the impact of earthquakes on intrastate conflict through a statistical analysis of 185 countries from 1975 to 2002. The analysis indicates that earthquakes increase the likelihood of conflict, and that their effects are greater for higher-magnitude earthquakes striking more densely populated areas of countries with lower gross domestic products and pre-existing conflicts. These results suggest that disaster recovery efforts must pay greater attention to the conflict-producing potential of earthquakes and take steps, including strengthening security procedures, to prevent this outcome from occurring.