Playing the long game: Exploring the relationship between Al-Shabab and civilians in areas beyond state control

Al-Shabab’s relationship with civilians is crucial for its survival. The group exploits civilian frustration with political exclusion and government neglect but, in the areas it controls, it also provides public goods (such as security and justice) and allows civilians a degree of influence over how Al-Shabab governs.

Civilians, particularly clan elders, use whatever leverage they can to extract benefits from Al-Shabab. Their influence over Al-Shabab depends on many factors such as clan unity and the strategic or military value of a given community to Al-Shabab.

Despite losses in territory over the past year, Al-Shabab is strategically retreating and playing the long game, betting on the government's inability to maintain control over the long term. Al-Shabab's deep entrenchment in local politics and clan structures, underscores the need for a comprehensive political, governance, and reconciliation strategy to establish long-term stability.