Kenya crisis analysis’

After experiencing serious drought in 2017 and early 2018 many pastoral areas of Kenya are now recovering due to above average rainfall during the long rains season, resulting in good vegetation growth. However, pastoral livelihood areas will remain IPC Phase 1 (Minimal) and IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) into 2019 due to below average seasonal short rains. Livestock prices are currently between 13% and 30% above the five-year average while maize prices have consistently remained below the five-year average. ?

Various disease outbreaks are affecting Kenya, including cholera and Rift Valley Fever. ? Kenya also hosts close to 500,000 refugees, including over 257,000 from Somalia and 115,000 from South Sudan. ? Insecurity particularly affects the counties bordering Somalia, with Al Shabaab conducting sporadic attacks against civilians and state security forces. Some regions, such as the Rift Valley and Isiolo county, are affected by inter-communal violence and banditry. Access in Kenya has been problematic during periods of flooding but has improved consistently into 2019.

INFORM measures Kenya’s risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster to be high, at 5.9/10.