Impact of humanitarian aid on the Lebanese economy

To provide a deeper understanding of the overall effects of the response operation, UNDP and UNHCR have commissioned a study to assess the impact on the Lebanese economy of the assistance provided by four major UN agencies (UNHCR, UNICEF, WFP, and UNDP) in response to the Syrian crisis. It was agreed to adopt two measures to reflect the direct and indirect impacts of the humanitarian funds: (1) A fiscal multiplier exercise which calculates the total effect of humanitarian expenditures on the aggregate demand and GDP of the pre-crisis Lebanese economy, disregarding all other economic and fiscal factors; and (2) A general equilibrium exercise which incorporates the various sources of production and consumption and the potential substitution among the various factors of production.

The present report presents the results of the first phase of the study, i.e. the multiplier exercise, which calculates the impact of an estimated annual aid package for four major UN humanitarian agencies of US$ 800 million.