Humanitarian assistance in a (pre-)conflict Afghanistan

This 2nd context analysis for WFP Afghanistan elaborates on a series of likely scenarios (2013-2016) for humanitarian planning and programming during transition.

The objective of this paper is to provide information that enables WFP to make responsible, safe, and sound planning and decision making in an increasingly volatile operating environment. The first section draws a macro-level picture of the Afghan political context, to better elaborate on a series of likely scenarios that may occur up until 2016. The second section fine-tunes this analysis at the provincial scale, by assessing the regional security situation and testing the hypothesis of a national atomisation. The conclusive section will outline how these scenarios can affect WFP’s implementation of assistance and provide recommendations as to how WFP can best prepare for the next Afghan historical turning point.