Heuristics, biases and wrong lessons learned in humanitarian operations 2009

How many people need assistance in a disaster affected area? Which and how many items (eg. tents, plastic sheets, water and sanitation kits, etc) should be pre-positioned in a regional depot? How much money should organizations appeal for? These are a sample of important questions in humanitarian relief operations. Correctly answering them may make the difference between an effective relief operation and an ineffective one. It is common to assume that these questions can be answered more precisely once humanitarians with significant field experience have access to the proper information. The common belief behind such assumptions is that field experience allows humanitarians to make the most adequate decisions in the field. While these beliefs are often correct – experienced humanitarians can rely on their knowledge to make better decisions than inexperienced ones – field experience may not be enough to prevent humanitarians from making irrational decisions.