Climate change, water security and national security for Jordan, Palestine and Israel

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is considered a climate hotspot due to its natural water scarcity, low levels of socio-ecological resilience, social tensions and political conflicts, and ongoing immigration crisis. Over the course of the century, Jordan, Palestine, and Israel are projected to experience an average temperature rise over the Mediterranean of ~1.4C to ~4C; a general decrease in precipitation of 25 percent regionally and up to 40 percent locally; a shift in rain seasons from winter and spring to autumn; a higher frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts, flash floods, and forest fires; as well as a growing rate of desertification. Despite the effects of climate change being already observable in the region, the three countries have yet to fully recognize the connection between the negative impact of climate change on their neighbors’ national security, and the implications for their own national security. Based on this lack of understanding, Jordan, Israel, and Palestine have done little to develop a regional, integrated road map for climate related national security.