An African perspective on transboundary and cascading climate risks

“Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability”, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded as far back as 2007. But while Africa’s exposure and vulnerability to direct climate risks have long been recognised, the same cannot be said for the consequential transboundary and cascading climate impacts.

This brief first looks at how transboundary and cascading climate risks could impact different African regions, with a focus on East Africa, West Africa and Southern Africa. It then examines what roles national adaptation plans (NAPs) and regional adaptation plans can play in managing these risks. Finally, it makes recommendations for how the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) could use processes and programmes under the UNFCCC to push for support measures that better manage transboundary and cascading climate risks in Africa.

ODI is one of the founding members of Adaptation Without Borders, alongside Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and The Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI).

Key Messages

Africa is even more exposed to the impacts of climate change than has so far been recognised when transboundary and cascading climate risks are considered. Such risks are generated when the impacts of climate change in one country cascade into another. Flows of trade, finance, people, and shared ecosystems and natural resources can all transmit such risks.

National adaptation plans (NAPs) could play a crucial role in identifying, profiling and assessing the risks that a country is likely to be exposed to from abroad. NAPs could also identify how a country’s direct exposure to climate risks could create vulnerabilities for others, and where its adaptation actions enhance the resilience of others and contribute to the global public good.

National responses to transboundary and cascading climate risks could negatively impact other countries and regions: adaptation can create both winners and losers. There are opportunities for enhanced coordination and cooperation between the African Union, Regional Economic Communities, and Member States as well as sub-national entities in addressing and managing transboundary and cascading climate risks.

Transboundary and cascading climate risks call for a redefinition of adaptation and approaches that not only transform what is being done but also how adaptation is planned and implemented. A much greater degree of international cooperation is required to address these risks as well as the integration of cascading climate risk considerations in broader national and regional policies, such as security, trade and development, to build resilience and stability to climate risk in Africa.