Network Paper 66: Solving the risk equation - People-centred disaster risk assessment in Ethiopia

We live in a world buffeted by hazards. Some 85% of the world’s population resides in areas affected at least once in the past 30 years by a major earthquake, tropical cyclone, flood or drought. In the last 20 years, well over two million people have been killed by natural disasters. The total number of people affected each year has doubled over the last decade. For these people, it is not a question of whether major hazards will occur, but when. Depending on the vulnerability of the households affected, and the systems set up to protect these populations, these hazards can catapult them into new levels of destitution.

This paper argues that a recently established system in Ethiopia has advanced the science in the area of disaster risk assessment, making it possible to project the likely impact of a wide range of hazards on the livelihoods of households living in rural areas. Particularly important is the way that ‘vulnerability’ and ‘coping capacity’ are characterised and integrated into this system, transforming a descriptive analysis into a predictive one, allowing analysts to solve the risk assessment equation using a new, deductive-based approach.