Refugees in the MENA Region: What Geopolitical Consequences?

Over the past two years, a combination of security crises has caused a wave of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the Middle East and North of Africa (MENA) region. Managing these new refugee movements poses a predicament to Maghreb countries and the European Union (EU) alike. This is one part of a complex set of political shockwaves of the Arab spring. Contrary to common belief, the main challenge is not so much the inflows of immigrants from the MENA to Europe, but rather the massive movements within the Middle East itself. These movements play into and may compound incipient political tensions between and within MENA states. Intra-regional flows risk further stirring up sectarian tensions and disturbing the fragile political alliances that exist among MENA powers. While the European Union and the US support many useful projects aimed at dealing with refugee flows and displaced persons, these tend to treat the problem as mainly a humanitarian one, when in fact a more holistic political response is required.