Building Safer Cities: The Future of Disaster Risk

Vulnerability to disaster impacts is one of the most underestimated
issues in urban development. By 2050, the world
population is expected to grow by 3 billion people. Most
of this growth will take place in developing countries—
and within these countries, in cities and towns—more than
doubling urban populations. Large numbers of people will
be concentrated in megacities and on fragile lands, making
reduction of vulnerability to disasters in metropolitan areas
a critical challenge facing development.
Disaster impacts are increasing in severity. Annual
direct losses for weather-related events have increased
from $3.9 billion in the 1950s to $63 billion in the
1990s. Moreover, a number of ongoing trends have the
potential to cause even more severe and broader disaster
impacts than ever before. These include increased
environmental degradation, the impacts of climate
change, population growth in cities, and globalization.
Increasingly, disasters affect communities far beyond
the areas of geographic impact as regions are linked in
new ways. During the 1999 earthquake in Turkey, numerous
textile factories collapsed, bringing to a standstill
Turkey’s large demand for African cotton. While the September
11 terrorist strikes had devastating impacts in
the United States, the greatest economic and human
impacts may be felt in Sub-Saharan Africa. The World
Bank estimates that the resulting global economic slowdown
could kill 20,000–40,000 children, half of them
in Africa, as poverty worsens.
While industrialized countries may register higher
economic losses following a disaster, there are frequently
systems in place to respond to the event to minimize loss
of life. Property is often covered by insurance. In developing
countries, by contrast, disasters can cause major
setbacks to economic and social development, inflict
massive casualties, and cause the diversion of funds
from development to emergency relief and recovery.
Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to disruptions
from extreme events, especially in developing countries,
where the combination of structural poverty, decaying
and substandard infrastructure, high population densities,
and the concentration of economic assets and commercial
and industrial activities magnify the problem.