Obstacles to and Opportunities for Anticipatory Action in Somalia

This brief is the second in a series highlighting learnings from a longitudinal study on anticipatory action in Somalia. With increasing interest in anticipatory action, it is becoming more important to understand what can be done, and when, to reduce or mitigate expected crisis impacts. The longitudinal learning by SPARC aims to inform that analysis by understanding better what information people have about which challenges may be coming their way, when they use various strategies to prepare for possible difficulties, and what constraints they face at different times.

This SPARC brief shares learning from regular interviews with a panel of households, including pastoralists, farmers and small-business owners in Somaliland, Puntland and South-Central Somalia. Initially, interviewing and analysis focused on the impacts of Covid-19 on Somali pastoralists and farmers in early 2020. Following warnings in late 2020 of a likely drought, the focus of interviewing shifted to how people were seeing the threat of drought and what they were doing as a result, to better understand the implications for anticipatory action. Respondents included pastoralists, agropastoralists, and farmers in rural and urban areas in Burao (Togdheer region, Somaliland), Galkayo (Mudug region, Puntland) and Jowhar (Middle Shebelle region, South West state).

The paper highlights key findings on the convergence of global, national and local shocks contributing to the 2021 emergency; the importance of community networks for early warning information; different threat responses  by groups of people with different livelihood strategies (including pastoralists, agropastoralists and farmers); and the need for communication with communities by aid actors who engage in anticipatory action.